Огляд методів і технологій сценарного аналізу каскадних ефектів
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35681/1560-9189.2024.26.1.308506Ключові слова:
сценарний аналіз, каскадний ефект, критична інфраструктура, управлінська діяльність, методи моделюванняАнотація
Представлено систематичний аналіз існуючих методів і технологій сценарного аналізу каскадних ефектів з точки зору їхньої ефективності для використання при розробці моделі захисту критичної інфраструктури. Розглянуто найважливіші досягнення в даній сфері за останні десятиліття. Виділено десять перспективних підходів: метод аналізу перехресних впливів, інтерпретаційне структурне моделювання, їхнє поєднання, метод Delphi, динамічне моделювання, методи аналізу ризиків, метод мережевого аналізу, агентне моделювання, моделювання геоінформаційні системи, методи машинного навчання. За результатами сформовано підсумкову таблицю, в якій представлено стислий опис кожного із розглянутих підходів, технології та інструментальні засоби його реалізації, переваги порівняно з іншими підходами, недоліки і особливості застосування. Показано, що для розглянутих методів розроблено пакети комп’ютерного моделювання, які дозволяють досліджувати складні сценарії виникнення каскадних ефектів.
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