Огляд методів і технологій сценарного аналізу каскадних ефектів
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35681/1560-9189.2024.26.1.308506Ключові слова:
сценарний аналіз, каскадний ефект, критична інфраструктура, управлінська діяльність, методи моделюванняАнотація
Представлено систематичний аналіз існуючих методів і технологій сценарного аналізу каскадних ефектів з точки зору їхньої ефективності для використання при розробці моделі захисту критичної інфраструктури. Розглянуто найважливіші досягнення в даній сфері за останні десятиліття. Виділено десять перспективних підходів: метод аналізу перехресних впливів, інтерпретаційне структурне моделювання, їхнє поєднання, метод Delphi, динамічне моделювання, методи аналізу ризиків, метод мережевого аналізу, агентне моделювання, моделювання геоінформаційні системи, методи машинного навчання. За результатами сформовано підсумкову таблицю, в якій представлено стислий опис кожного із розглянутих підходів, технології та інструментальні засоби його реалізації, переваги порівняно з іншими підходами, недоліки і особливості застосування. Показано, що для розглянутих методів розроблено пакети комп’ютерного моделювання, які дозволяють досліджувати складні сценарії виникнення каскадних ефектів.
Посилання
EU Matrix PROTECT D3.1 Description of Best practices and Technologies р.111. URL: https://protect-cities.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/PROTECT_D3.1_Description-of-Best-practices-and-Technologies-v1.0.pdf
Dodonov O.H., Horbachyk O.S., Kuznyetsova M.H. Pidvyshchennya bezpeky krytychnykh infrastruk-tur zasobamy avtomatyzovanykh system orhanizatsiynoho upravlinnya. Reyestratsiya, zberihannya i obrob. danykh. 2022. T. 24, No.1. S. 74–81. https://doi.org/10.35681/1560-9189.2022.24.1.262817.
Dodonov O.H., Senchenko V.R., Putyatin V.H., Boychenko A.V., Koval O.V. Metodolohichni ta tekhnolohichni aspekty kompyuternoho modelyuvannya stsenariyiv pryynyattya rishen. Matematychni mashyny i systemy. 2023. No.3. S. 65–88.
Murasov R., Melnyk Ya., Marko V. Porivnyannya isnuyuchykh metodyk otsinyuvannya zahroz i ryzykiv dlya potentsiyno-nebezpechnykh ob"yektiv krytychnoyi infrastruktury v zoni vedennya boyovykh diy. Suchasni informatsiyni tekhnolohiyi u sferi bezpeky ta oborony. 2022. 45(3). S.32–36.
Argyroudis S.A., Mitouli S.A., Chatzi, E., Baker J.W., Brilakis I., Gkoumas K., Linkov I. (2022). Digital technologies can enhance climate resilience of critical infrastructure. Climate Risk Management. 35, 100387.
Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga, Victor A. Banuls Silvera, Murray Turoff. A CIA–ISM scenario approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0952197615001633
Henrik Hassel, Jonas Johansson, Alexander Cedergren, Linn Svegrup, Bjorn Arvidsson1, Method to study cascading effects Anders Lonnermark at SP Sveriges Tekniska Forskningsinstitut (SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden) 2014. URL: https://casceff.eu/media2/2016/02/D2.1-Deliverable_ Final_Ver2_PU.pdf
Linkov I., Trump B., Trump D., Pescaroli J., Hynes G., Mavrodieva W., Panda, A. (2022). Resilience stress testing for critical infrastructure. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 103323.
Gro?e C. (2020). Towards systemic governance of critical infrastructure protection: State and relevance of a Swedish case (Doctoral dissertation, Mid Sweden University). URL: http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1439568/FULLTEXT01.pdf
Renlong Wang, Endong Wang, Lingzhi Li, Wei Li Evaluating the Effectiveness of the COVID-19 Emergency Outbreak Prevention and Control Based on CIA-ISM. URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/12/7146
Lee A.B. (2022). A Quantitative Research Study on Probability Risk Assessments in Critical Infrastructure and Homeland Security.
Jiajia Song, Eduardo Cotilla Sanchez, Goodarz Ghanavati, Paul D.H. Hines. Dynamic Modeling of Cascading Failure in Power Systems (2015). URL: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7127056/ authors#authors
Daponte P., & Paladi F. (Eds.). (2023). Monitoring and Protection of Critical Infrastructure by Unmanned Systems (Vol. 63). IOS Press.
Yitian Dai, Matthias Noebels, Mathaios Panteli, Robin Preece. (2021) Evaluating the Effect of Dynamic and Static Modelling on Cascading Failure Analysis in Power Systems. URL: https://ieeexplore. ieee.org/document/9495001
Maltezos E., Skitsas M., Charalambous E., Koutras N., Bliziotis D., & Themistocleous K. (2016, August). Critical infrastructure monitoring using UAV imagery. In Fourth International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of the Environment (RSCy2016) (Vol. 9688. Р. 220-226). SPIE.
Daniela Biondi, Graziella Emanuela Scarcella, Pasquale Versace CERCA (Cascading Effects in Risk Consequences Assessment): An operational tool for geo-hydrological scenario risk assessment and cascading effects evaluation. URL: https://iwaponline.com/hr/article/54/2/189/93397/CERCA-Cascading-Effects-in-Risk-Consequences
Kootala A., Mousa A., Pong P.W. Drones are Endangering Energy Critical Infrastructure, and How We Can Deal with This. Energies. 2023. 16(14). 5521.
Di Pietro R., Raponi S., Caprolu M., Cresci S., Di Pietro R., Raponi S., Cresci S. (2021). Critical infrastructure. New Dimensions of Information Warfare. С. 157–196.
Yitian Dai, Robin Preece, and Mathaios Panteli. (2022). Benefits and Challenges of Dynamic Modelling of Cascading Failures in Power Systems https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2207/2207.03389.pdf
Giulio Zuccaro, Daniela De Gregorio, Mattia F.Leone. (2018). Theoretical model for cascading effects analyses. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918305041
Noel A.B., Abdaoui A., Elfouly T., Ahmed M.H., Badawy A., & Shehata M.S. Structural health monitoring using wireless sensor networks: A comprehensive survey. IEEE Communications Surveys & Tutorials. 2017. 19(3). P. 1403–1423.
Cascade effect. URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascade_effect
Victor A. Banuls, Murray Turoff. Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis. URL: http://www.huaxuejia.cn/ism/cia_aism/paper/files/CIA-ISM-1.pdf
Rajesh Attri, Nikhil Dev and Vivek Sharma Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) approach: An Overview Research Journal of Management Sciences Vol. 2(2), 3-8, February (2013) ISSN 2319–1171
Cross-Impact Analysis. URL: http://foresight-platform.eu/community/forlearn/how-to-do-foresight/methods/analysis/cross-impact-analysis/
Ahmad N., Qahmash A. SmartISM: Implementation and Assessment of Interpretive Structural Modeling. Sustainability 2021. 13. 8801. URL: https://doi.org/10.3390/su13168801. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/16/8801
Rajesh Attri, Nikhil Dev, Vivek Sharma Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) approach: An Overview. URL: https://www.isca.in/IJMS/Archive/v2/i2/2.ISCA-RJMS-2012-054.php
Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff. The Delphi Method Techniques and Applications. URL: https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/29694542/delphibook.pdf
Wetterwald Jeremy, Yaroslav Smirnov. (2018) Using Network Analysis to Evaluate the Cascading Impacts of Crises on Service and Market Systems. URL: https://www.preventionweb.net/files/65950_f45finalwetterwaldjeremyusingnetwor.pdf
Zakon Ukrayiny «Pro krytychnu infrastrukturu». URL: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/ show/1882-20#Text
Fan Yang, Ji Qiao, Mengjie Shi, Zixuan Zhao, Rui Liu Cascading Event Analysis in Distribution Networks Based on High-Dimensional Factor Models (2023) 8th Asia Conference on Power and Electrical Engineering. URL: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/conhome/10135545/proceeding
Cross-Impact Analysis — European Foresight Platform — AIT. URL: http://foresight-platform.eu/community/forlearn/how-to-do-foresight/methods/analysis/cross-impact-analysis/
Dodonov O.H., Kuz'mychov A.I. Merezhevi orhanizatsiyni struktury upravlinnya. Modelyuvannya ta vizualizatsiya zasobamy Excel. Kyiv: Vyd-vo «Lira-K», 2021. 264 s. ISBN 978-617-520-049-0.
Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga, Victor A. Banuls, Murray Turoff. A Scenario — based approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277330793_A_Scenario_-_based_approach_for_analyzing_ complex_cascading_effects_in_Operational_Risk_Management
Cross-Impact Analysis. URL: http://foresight-platform.eu/community/forlearn/how-to-do-foresight/methods/analysis/cross-impact-analysis/
Michael John North, Eric Tatara, Nicholson Collier, J. Ozik. Visual agent-based model development with repast symphony. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236555809_ Visual_agent-based_model_development_with_repast_simphony/l
Repast Simphony. URL: https://repast.github.io/repast_simphony.html
NetLogo. URL: https://github.com/NetLogo/NetLogo
Graphics with ggplot2. URL: https://www.statmethods.net/advgraphs/ggplot2.html
Scenario Wizard 6.0. URL: https://scenario-wizard.software.informer.com/
Cross Impact Matrix. URL: https://discoveryoursolutions.com/toolkit/cross_impact_matrix.html
CIASS Software. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/CIASS-wwwciassorg_fig5_ 307476122
NLTK (Natural Language Toolkit). URL: https://github.com/nltk/nltk
Mesydel https://github.com/mesydel
Web-Based Statistics Software for Delphi Method. URL: https://www.stat59.com/about/delphi-method-software
micmacIGN/micmacPublic. URL: https://github.com/micmacIGN/micmac
Interpretative Structural Modeling. URL: https://exsimpro.com/software/
Powerful modeling and diagramming capabilities on any web browser. URL: https://www.iseesystems.com/store/products/stella-online.aspx
Powersim Software. URL: https://powersim.com/
Nukavarapu, N., & Durbha, S. (2020). Interdependent healthcare critical infrastructure analysis in a spatiotemporal environment: A case study. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 9(6), 387.
Rajarajan, S. R. (2021). Risk assessment dashboard to visualize the cascading effects of critical infrastructure service failure due to natural hazards (Master's thesis, University of Twente).
NetworkX Software for Complex Networks https://github.com/networkx
Igraph. URL: https://github.com/search?q=igraph&type=repositories
python-agentspeak https://github.com/niklasf/python-agentspeak/blob/master/setup.py
Top 10 Natural Language Processing tools and platforms. URL: https://aimagazine.com/top10/top-10-natural-language-processing-tools-and-platforms
Maryna Zharikova, Volodymyr Sherstjuk, Oleg Boskin, Irina Dorovska. Event-Based Approach to Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment. URL: https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2805/paper19.pdf
Naeem Md Sami, Mia Naeini. Machine Learning Applications in Cascading Failure Analysis in Power Systems: A Review https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.19390.pdf
The Open Graph Viz Platform. URL: https://gephi.org/
aspy2. URL: https://github.com/jaspy2/jaspy
Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga, Victor A. Banuls, Murray Turoff. A Scenario - based approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277330793_A_Scenario_based_approach_for_analyzing_complex_cascading_effects_in_Operational_Risk_Management
Sentinel. URL: https://www.sentinel-hub.com/pricing/
MODIS Web. URL: https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/
LiDAR-skanuvannya. URL: https://mirnychyj.com.ua/lidar/
A Free and Open Source Geographic Information System. URL: https://qgis.org/en/site/
GeoPandas. URL: https://geopandas.org/en/stable/
Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). URL: https://www.epa.gov/water-research/storm-water-management-model-swmm
TensorFlow. URL: https://www.tensorflow.org/
Pytorch. URL: https://pytorch.org/
Boychenko A.V., & Senchenko V.R. Pidkhid do modelyuvannya heoprostorovykh kaskadnykh efektiv krytychnykh infrastruktur. Informatsiyni tekhnolohiyi ta bezpeka. 2023. 56(7). pp. 35–38.
Joongyeub Yeo and George Papanicolaou. Random matrix approach to estimation of high-dimensional factor models. https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.05571
