Мережевий підхід при дослідженні каскадних ефектів критичних інфраструктур
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35681/1560-9189.2024.26.2.316908Ключові слова:
критична інфраструктура, каскадний збій, теорія графів, мережа Баєса, мережа Петрі, ланцюг Маркова, онтологіяАнотація
Каскадний збій у роботі критичної інфраструктури призводить до негативних наслідків, тому важливо вчасно виявити та провести превентивні дії для зменшення наслідків каскаду. У статті представлено аналіз можливостей мережевого підходу при побудові та дослідженні моделі каскаду на основі теорії графів. За допомогою метрик якості графів, можливо визначити центральність та важливість вузлів моделі, розрахувати імовірності переходів між вузлами, настання критичних подій, дослідити різні сценарії розвитку. Графічна модель енергомережі, являє взаємопов’язану мережу вузлів і кінцевих обмежень (лінія електропередачи, трансформаторна підстанція, імпеданс та інші). В статті розглянуто застосування різних мережевих підходів — мережі Баєса, Петрі, Маркова та наведено результати порівняльного аналізу їх можливостей при виникненні каскаду. Це дозволяє більш досконало адаптувати мережеві методи до конкретних потреб моделювання та сформувати вимоги до відповідних програмних засобів.
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